Indonesia's relationship with China will be a key issue in the 2024 presidential election, as two of the three candidates appear to hold pro-Beijing views, according to a new policy note.
The new leader will have to overcome difficulties, since China is the main source of foreign investment for Indonesia, and is also seen as a threat to the territorial sovereignty of the largest country in Southeast Asia.
Three Indonesian presidential candidates are vying for the seat of Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, who has developed close ties with Beijing, according to a summary released Friday by Jakarta-based think tank CELIOS.
Among the contenders, former Jakarta governor Ani Baswedan appears to be the only Chinese opponent vying with its number one rival, the United States, for influence in Southeast Asia.
Candidate Ganjar Pranava of the Jokowi Party and governor of Central Java is expected to continue the policies of his predecessor, CELIOS reported.
And at first glance, it appears that a third candidate, Prabowo Subianto, a defense minister and former army general, may also continue Jokowi's policies, SELIOS said. For example, Probova, as the head of the Ministry of Defense, tried to strengthen military cooperation with Beijing.
But the think tank added a caveat. All of Prabov's actions were actually actions of the Yokohama administration, so they have to be viewed from that perspective, and if he is elected president, Prabov could change his position.
SELIOS said the candidate most likely to "change" the current government's foreign policy if it wins is Agnes.
Anis appears to be more interested in building relations with the United States and Western countries, said think tank researcher Muhammad Zulfiqar Rahmat.
“During her tenure as governor of Jakarta, Agnes has traveled to several European countries seeking cooperation, from building a rapid mass transit (MRT) to a collaborative smart city,” Zulfikar said during a webinar hosted by CELIOS at Jakarta last week. .
He noted that despite the pro-Chinese bias of the Jokowi government, Agnès was in regular contact with the West, having visited the UK, Germany, France and Luxembourg in 2022.
According to CELIOS, Agnes may feel closer to the West because she has lived and studied in the United States for many years.
"Supposedly, Agnes understands that due to the ongoing anti-China sentiment in society, Indonesian politicians, who are closely associated with Communist Party of China (CPC) leaders, regularly lose elections," the policy statement said.
"Perhaps getting rid of the 'Chinese lackey' label could be a surefire way to win over the public."
CELIO was referring to China's massive infrastructure projects in Indonesia , which often cause controversy over Indonesia's working conditions, environmental impacts, and potential debt trap.
"Anies wants to change the attitude of Indonesians towards the government, which is criticized by public opinion for being too pro-Chinese," said Zulfikar.
Instead, Ganjar has publicly stated that if elected, he would continue Jokowi's policies, said CELIOS researcher Zulfikar .
Jokowi and the Ganjari Party, the Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (IDP-P) and the Communist Party of China (CPC) have a history of good relations.
"Jokowi himself has a close relationship with China, as evidenced by Indonesia's foreign policy stance during his tenure, which was more pro-Chinese, especially in the development and infrastructure sectors," Zulfikar said .
Jokowi's focus on infrastructure is in line with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) global infrastructure-building program, the think tank said.
“Geopolitically, Indonesia has a strategic geographical advantage and a large market share.
absorb and realize China's interests in implementing the One Belt, One Road initiative. … Ties between the two emerging countries continued to develop during Jokowi's second term,” the research note said.
In addition, Ganjar, as governor of Central Java, has been in frequent contact with China and "often praises China," Zulfikar said.
"Central Java Province has signed various cooperation programs with China through a regional partnership."
For example, in 2019, dozens of Chinese investors in the woodworking and furniture industries poured nearly $2 billion into Central Java's economy.
In May 2023, Ganjar also signed an investment deal with the Chinese to build a power plant in Batang Industrial Zone, which is expected to create jobs for at least 10,000 local workers, according to CELIOS.
As for retired Defense Minister Prabov, CELIOS said they were "part of a system in which the current government's foreign policy is closely linked to China's interests."
While Prabowo stressed to his Chinese counterpart in September 2022 amid heightened tensions in the disputed South China Sea that Jakarta would continue to pursue a free and active foreign policy, most of his other meetings with Chinese officials were on defense. cooperation, said UC.
"Prabow's frequency of contacts with China continues to be noteworthy as an indication of the potential future direction of Indonesian foreign policy should he be elected president," the report said.
"However, it should be emphasized that the existing relationship is inseparable from the fact that many of these commitments have been made through his official position as a minister in the Jokowi cabinet."
"President-elect must be tough" in the South China Sea
The think tank noted that the Chinese coast guard and Chinese vessels have been very active in illegal patrolling of Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in recent years, "including as far north as Natuna."
"However, the Indonesian Navy did not prevent the entry of these vessels, but only tracked them from a distance of less than a mile," the briefing said.
"The president-elect must be firm and consistent against China's aggression in the South China Sea."
Indonesia has no territorial dispute with China, but has repeatedly protested the entry of Chinese fishing boats and coastguards into its EEZ near the Natuna Islands .
Yeta Purnama, another CELIOS analyst, said the next president should also consider projects that could put Indonesia into a debt trap, including the Jakarta-Bandung bullet train project.
“The biggest concern is a miscalculation that leads to increased construction costs, which can become a debt trap,” Yeta said during the webinar.
Indonesia's next president should support Jakarta's free and active foreign policy and distance himself from China, said Ahmad Rizki Mardatila Umar, a political scientist at the University of Queensland in Australia.
“If Indonesia gets too close to China, we will not be able to withstand the superpower battle,” he said during the webinar.
"It won't have a good long-term effect."
